Global Warming caused by humans is total BS!
A little critical thinking has brought me to this conclusion.
We are often quoted the same temperature change studies. The ones that use ice core samples from Greenland or Antarctica for a history of temperatures. From a statistical point of view, these samples do not represent the entire "population" of historical temperatures. Researchers have effectively committed sampling error when doing their analysis by using some set number of years 30, 50, 200 that are all part of the industrial age. We know the earth has climate cycles, some are only a couple years and some are hundreds of thousands if not millions of years long.
Two reasons why their methodology is flawed:
1) The ice core samples only go back as far as the begining of the last Ice Age. That means that the starting temperatures were already cold as hell. Everyday since the end of the last Ice Age has been warmer. Thus, the trend of warmer temperatures was already well underway before man started placing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the environment.
We know from geological evidence that there have been multiple Ice Ages and warming periods in between those events. Some of those warming periods have been so warm that Antarctica has forests on it. Not just forests, but tropical forests. Think for a moment how warm things must have been aroung the equator if Antarctica felt like the Amazon! No really, think about that...
2) The other flaw is that we know that the continents have shifted due to plate techtonics over millions of years. Greenland has not always been as far North or South as it is now. The ice core studies have made no attempt to account for this movement and how that could impact the ice core records for average temperature.
It is clear from historical record that the earth's temperature varies in natural cycles. Examples include the Little Ice Age during medival times or the Year Without Summer after the volcano erruption of Tambora. It snowed in June on the East coast of the U.S. that next "summer". Some of these events are relatively short, lasting only 20-30 years. Some last hundreds or even millions of years (Ice Ages).
Some will argue about THE RATE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE. The fact is, no one really knows what the historical rate of past warming periods has been. The Ice Core samples don't go back that far. They ALL melted during the last warming period!
For people who don't believe in God, global warming advocates sure seem to believe that their is a God given mandate that the earth's temperature "should" stay within a range that supports human life. Who ever said that the last 10,000 years of temperatures is normal or the status quo?
What if human beings have thrived during an unusually warm or cold period? What if the average temperature for the earth is really below freezing? Or 120 degrees plus?
All of this crazy talk about global warming would be laughable if it were just talk. Unfortunately, people with agendas have seen an opportunity to make some money and destroy the freedom of our people through environmental law.
By continuing with this crazy delusion that human activity is causing the world to over heat, we are on the path to a world wide Easter Island. We will exert so much energy protecting the environment that we will all die of starvation. This is exactly what some people who promote Global Warming heresy want. UN offical Quote here:
"When one considers that even if all the nations complied with the Kyoto Accord's CO2 emission mandates, the impact on global temperature change over the ext fifty years would be less than one degree centigrade." (Dr. Patrick Michaels, Press Release on Lieberman-Warner, The Cato Institute.)
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
The Financial Education of America (part 2 Understanding Financial Risk)
Only people in the United States could be so narcissistic to think that they could spend more money than they have. Why do we spend so much money to guarantee that old people do not die? Isn't death a part of life? We spend more money to maintain the lifestyles of people who can no longer contribute to our countries welfare and economy, than we do for the productive workers and future generation. Like a large multinational corporation, we have become top heavy. We have too many old, retired people. FYI, they don't call it retirement when you can't afford to live, they call it unemployed!
Too many people believe it is their God given right to retire at 65 not matter how much or how little they have saved to do so. Why is it that the children of working parents get less health care than the children of welfare parents? We have a system that rewards those who don't EARN enough to provide for themselves but punishes those who are doing all they can, but have EARNED too much to get our help. Our welfare system is designed to fail! We have created a system where people are better off not working. This is only sustainable by taking a larger and larger portion of the EARNINGS of people who work hard enough to support themselves. As this continues, people get a lower and lower return for their efforts. At some point, they say "F It" and join the welfare throng. Soon everyone is looking at each other wondering who is going to breathe for them because they are too helpless (lazy) to do it themselves. Why can liberals not see this? Sure giving to the less fortunate – either by choice or circumstance is nice and a good thing. It makes you feel good, it really does! When it comes at the cost of biting the hand that feeds you though, you have gone too far. When charitable giving no longer involves charity but has been replaced by coercion through taxes, we have gone too far. When are people, esp. liberals going to realize that life is not FAIR?
Nature is a cold-hearted bitch and this world is very unforgiving to stupid people. There is no guarantee of freedom, peace, enough food to eat, home ownership, an education, or even life itself. Each must be fought for and EARNED each day.
When are people going to realize that trying to get that extra percentage return on investments also increases the risk? Don't people realize that outsized gains come with outsized risk? Oh, and for the record, Risk is not defined as not making any money or just keeping pace with inflation. Risk equals you might lose all your money invested, more money, and your reputation. At some point in the return vs. risk continuum, fraud begins, some point higher than that the law is broken. Why do you think drug dealers sell drugs? Why do business men create Ponzi schemes? The rate of return is incredible!
If it sounds too good to be true... IT IS. If someone tells you the investment is "guaranteed"...Don't Believe It!
Too many people believe it is their God given right to retire at 65 not matter how much or how little they have saved to do so. Why is it that the children of working parents get less health care than the children of welfare parents? We have a system that rewards those who don't EARN enough to provide for themselves but punishes those who are doing all they can, but have EARNED too much to get our help. Our welfare system is designed to fail! We have created a system where people are better off not working. This is only sustainable by taking a larger and larger portion of the EARNINGS of people who work hard enough to support themselves. As this continues, people get a lower and lower return for their efforts. At some point, they say "F It" and join the welfare throng. Soon everyone is looking at each other wondering who is going to breathe for them because they are too helpless (lazy) to do it themselves. Why can liberals not see this? Sure giving to the less fortunate – either by choice or circumstance is nice and a good thing. It makes you feel good, it really does! When it comes at the cost of biting the hand that feeds you though, you have gone too far. When charitable giving no longer involves charity but has been replaced by coercion through taxes, we have gone too far. When are people, esp. liberals going to realize that life is not FAIR?
Nature is a cold-hearted bitch and this world is very unforgiving to stupid people. There is no guarantee of freedom, peace, enough food to eat, home ownership, an education, or even life itself. Each must be fought for and EARNED each day.
When are people going to realize that trying to get that extra percentage return on investments also increases the risk? Don't people realize that outsized gains come with outsized risk? Oh, and for the record, Risk is not defined as not making any money or just keeping pace with inflation. Risk equals you might lose all your money invested, more money, and your reputation. At some point in the return vs. risk continuum, fraud begins, some point higher than that the law is broken. Why do you think drug dealers sell drugs? Why do business men create Ponzi schemes? The rate of return is incredible!
If it sounds too good to be true... IT IS. If someone tells you the investment is "guaranteed"...Don't Believe It!
Reality Sets In
Reality has set in! Just look at what the stock market did today. Down 300 points.
Since the November election of Barack Obama, the nation and the stock market have been like a person anticipating the vacation of a lifetime. We have been looking forward to inauguration day with so much excitement, hope, and irrational exuberance that we have been able to avoid any thoughts about the economic reality we presently find ourselves. We have been able to get through the long work weeks and dreadful state of the economy by focusing on the happiness and joy January 20, 2009 will bring. Planning for a party always seems so much more fun than planning for your own funeral!
Well, today is like the first day back from vacation and all that remains is the drudgery of returning to work and paying the bills. Our overspending has caught up with us and there is no denying it now. Our creditors are tired of us telling them the check is in the mail and have wised up to our irresponsible ways. We have to face the facts and the hard work required to get us out of the mess our frivolous spending and quest for outsized gains has placed us in.
There is no longer any reason to irrationally think that Barack "Jesus" Obama will magically make all the bad things go away the second he finishes taking the oath to become President of the United States. See link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
I have always been proud of my country! Today's inauguration just adds one more thing that makes me proud to be an American. I pray for Obama's success at changing our country for the better. It is the greatest country in the history of the world. Not perfect, but the greatest.
Since the November election of Barack Obama, the nation and the stock market have been like a person anticipating the vacation of a lifetime. We have been looking forward to inauguration day with so much excitement, hope, and irrational exuberance that we have been able to avoid any thoughts about the economic reality we presently find ourselves. We have been able to get through the long work weeks and dreadful state of the economy by focusing on the happiness and joy January 20, 2009 will bring. Planning for a party always seems so much more fun than planning for your own funeral!
Well, today is like the first day back from vacation and all that remains is the drudgery of returning to work and paying the bills. Our overspending has caught up with us and there is no denying it now. Our creditors are tired of us telling them the check is in the mail and have wised up to our irresponsible ways. We have to face the facts and the hard work required to get us out of the mess our frivolous spending and quest for outsized gains has placed us in.
There is no longer any reason to irrationally think that Barack "Jesus" Obama will magically make all the bad things go away the second he finishes taking the oath to become President of the United States. See link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
I have always been proud of my country! Today's inauguration just adds one more thing that makes me proud to be an American. I pray for Obama's success at changing our country for the better. It is the greatest country in the history of the world. Not perfect, but the greatest.
The Financial Education of America (part 1)
Where has personal responsibility gone? How is it my fault you’re a sucker or an idiot for buying a house you couldn't afford? You say, "I trusted the realtor or the bank's loan officer, it's their fault." Since when do you ever trust another person with your money? When do you trust a salesperson to "give you the truth"? This is a classic example of why common sense is dead!
Do we need to require that a financial IQ test be given AND passed before you can qualify for a mortgage loan? I have created one that will solve our problems:
SAMPLE TEST
Q1 – Have you defined your shelter needs?
Q2 – Wrong answer dumba$$. A separate bedroom for each kid, a swimming pool, and 3 acres are not necessities for basic shelter. Redefine your needs and we will see if you can afford those WANTS later. Remember, humans have survived for thousands of years in a one room dwelling that was the kitchen, living room, office and bedroom. Yes, the kids did understand how babies were made and yet somehow they survived.
Q3 – How much can you afford?
If you don't know this, you have no business even thinking about a home purchase!
Take your gross income and multiply by .28. That was point two eight, not 28. Example $60,000 x .28 = $16,800. Divide $16,800 ÷ 12 (months) = $1,400. This is the amount you can afford to pay for the mortgage, utilities, repairs, home owners insurance, and all other costs surrounding your housing each month. This amount varies depending on how much other debt you have à Monthly credit card payments, student loan payments, and car loan payments, big screen TV payments, and other worthless shit you may have bought with credit. If you have less debt, you can increase this to as much as .35. Anything higher than this amount makes you house poor.
House Poor: You are paying so much for your house that you cannot afford to furnish it or buy anything else.
Do we need to require that a financial IQ test be given AND passed before you can qualify for a mortgage loan? I have created one that will solve our problems:
SAMPLE TEST
Q1 – Have you defined your shelter needs?
Q2 – Wrong answer dumba$$. A separate bedroom for each kid, a swimming pool, and 3 acres are not necessities for basic shelter. Redefine your needs and we will see if you can afford those WANTS later. Remember, humans have survived for thousands of years in a one room dwelling that was the kitchen, living room, office and bedroom. Yes, the kids did understand how babies were made and yet somehow they survived.
Q3 – How much can you afford?
If you don't know this, you have no business even thinking about a home purchase!
Take your gross income and multiply by .28. That was point two eight, not 28. Example $60,000 x .28 = $16,800. Divide $16,800 ÷ 12 (months) = $1,400. This is the amount you can afford to pay for the mortgage, utilities, repairs, home owners insurance, and all other costs surrounding your housing each month. This amount varies depending on how much other debt you have à Monthly credit card payments, student loan payments, and car loan payments, big screen TV payments, and other worthless shit you may have bought with credit. If you have less debt, you can increase this to as much as .35. Anything higher than this amount makes you house poor.
House Poor: You are paying so much for your house that you cannot afford to furnish it or buy anything else.
Here is how a typical person spends their income:
Taxes 25.00%
Mortgage, student loans, credit card, car loan 45.00%
Retirement 10.00%
Savings, Emergency fund, vacation fund, kids college fund 5.00%
Living Expenses 15.00%
Total 100.00%
Q4 – Can you calculate the monthly payment on a $300,000.00, 30 year fixed rate loan at 6%?
Yeah, I didn't think so. Go figure it out and come back when you can.
Now that you know how to calculate the monthly payment, you know how much you can afford, and what you housing needs are, you are ready to start shopping for a house. Did you read that? Now you are ready to shop. You don't find a house first and then see if you can afford it. That is the fastest way to pay the more money than you should.
FYI: Realtors, both the buyers and the sellers; want to sell you the most expensive house at the highest price possible. They work on commission, so getting you into a less expensive house hurts their income. They typically make 3% of the sale price each for a total of 6%. Buyer typically pays.
Rules:
1) If you don't earn enough to pay federal income taxes, you do not make enough to buy your own home. Yes, life is not fair and it is about Freaking time you realize it. Stop whining.
2) You cannot trust other people with your money. No one cares about your money more than you; except the guy or gal trying to take it from you. You cannot trust your realtor, loan officer, car salesman, investment advisor, student loan counselor, or anyone else if you do not understand what they are doing. You need to understand how they make money. If you are ignorant, you WILL lose money!!! If you are unsure, keep your money until you become informed. Asking friends you trust, other professionals in the area you are ignorant about, go to school, and using the internet are good ways to learn what is going on.
3) Over the course of 30 years, you will lose your job. Plan for it, save for it!
Sunday, January 11, 2009
More of what Obama should do - Encourage Saving
If Obama wants to get the economy going again, he should do the following things.
He should cut the federal income tax, eliminate the capital gains tax, and increase sales tax. I realize that increasing sales taxes could reduce spending, which decreases demand, which decreases employment. There is no getting around it, we have to take our medicine sometime, lets get it over with. After these, he should encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates slowly over time to reward savers.
One of the major problems in our current economic and financial crisis is that banks are trying to deleverage themselves. Basically, they have spent (lent) too much money and the bills are coming due, so they cannot loan more money right now until they build up their reserves (emergency fund).
1) By lowering the income tax, we give people more of the money they EARNED!
2) By raising the sales tax rates, we encourage people to save that extra money.
3) As people save this money, they place it into bank accounts. This speeds the deleveraging process for the banks and gets them closer to giving loans to people/businesses again.
4) By eliminating the capital gains tax, we encourage people to invest and save their money. In this way we provide more fiancial capital for businesses. In addition, we don't tax people twice on money they have already been taxed on.
5) By slowly raising Fed interest rates, we increase the rate of return savers get for saving. This creates more money to spend eventually, provides more incentive to save more, and helps banks deleverage even faster.
The federal government could help a lot by cutting its spending as well on programs we don't really need and assessing ones we really do.
He should cut the federal income tax, eliminate the capital gains tax, and increase sales tax. I realize that increasing sales taxes could reduce spending, which decreases demand, which decreases employment. There is no getting around it, we have to take our medicine sometime, lets get it over with. After these, he should encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates slowly over time to reward savers.
One of the major problems in our current economic and financial crisis is that banks are trying to deleverage themselves. Basically, they have spent (lent) too much money and the bills are coming due, so they cannot loan more money right now until they build up their reserves (emergency fund).
1) By lowering the income tax, we give people more of the money they EARNED!
2) By raising the sales tax rates, we encourage people to save that extra money.
3) As people save this money, they place it into bank accounts. This speeds the deleveraging process for the banks and gets them closer to giving loans to people/businesses again.
4) By eliminating the capital gains tax, we encourage people to invest and save their money. In this way we provide more fiancial capital for businesses. In addition, we don't tax people twice on money they have already been taxed on.
5) By slowly raising Fed interest rates, we increase the rate of return savers get for saving. This creates more money to spend eventually, provides more incentive to save more, and helps banks deleverage even faster.
The federal government could help a lot by cutting its spending as well on programs we don't really need and assessing ones we really do.
The Cost of Freedom
Americans have become too comfortable with the freedoms and right they enjoy. Too many seem to think that merely being born on the earth or even this country is a guarantee that they will be free. This isn't about Americans not voting in elections. This is about Americans not being active citizens. The "somebody else will do it" mentality has created an environment where corruption and politics as usual rule the day. Too many good people don't do the right thing because the costs are too high for them or they have too much to lose. They see corruption and do nothing about it; some even carry it out for employers and bosses.
The end effect is that we have a society where good people are punished and hurt, while the criminals prosper and rule.
Many people probably feel like, "what can I do, I am just one person?". What they fail to realize is that while most of us can't stop the corrupt Congressman, Senator, or Govenor; we can stop things at the local level by getting involved. Our country and political system was designed to be governed at the local level. It was predicated on the assumption that a vigilant and involved citizenry would ensure justice would be done and evils discovered. It would keep bad men from rising to the state or national level because their corruption would have been discovered earlier.
Citizenship goes beyond just the rights afforded in the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It also carries with it the duty to see that the rights of others are not violated or abused.
It is at this juncture that so many of us fall short. We see corruption and we do nothing about it. I suspect that this is mainly due to three reasons: fear of reprisal by those in power, the person whose rights are being violated does not share our views, or they are too poor to really matter.
I have seen in my own life where those who get involved to thwart the designs of evil men are derided in the media, their employment is terminated or business hurt. I am sure that it will only be a matter of time before I see someone killed for it.
What I fear is that too many Americans will not get involved, choosing their own self interest rather than protecting the rights of their fellow citizens. What they fail to realize that when anothers freedoms and rights are violated, those same rights that they have are also violated at the same time. Slowly but surely, they will find themselves in a place where they too cannot claim their rights, because there are no longer protections in place to ensure them. Their freedoms have been taken from them without them even knowing.
The last line of the Declaration of Independence says, "And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor."
This is what it took to achieve freedom. It took men who were willing to sacrifice their lives, their fortunes, and sacred honor. This threshold to maintain a free country has not changed! These sacrifices are the cost of freedom.
If you are not willing to sacrifice these things, you have already decided to join those who want to destroy freedom!
The end effect is that we have a society where good people are punished and hurt, while the criminals prosper and rule.
Many people probably feel like, "what can I do, I am just one person?". What they fail to realize is that while most of us can't stop the corrupt Congressman, Senator, or Govenor; we can stop things at the local level by getting involved. Our country and political system was designed to be governed at the local level. It was predicated on the assumption that a vigilant and involved citizenry would ensure justice would be done and evils discovered. It would keep bad men from rising to the state or national level because their corruption would have been discovered earlier.
Citizenship goes beyond just the rights afforded in the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It also carries with it the duty to see that the rights of others are not violated or abused.
It is at this juncture that so many of us fall short. We see corruption and we do nothing about it. I suspect that this is mainly due to three reasons: fear of reprisal by those in power, the person whose rights are being violated does not share our views, or they are too poor to really matter.
I have seen in my own life where those who get involved to thwart the designs of evil men are derided in the media, their employment is terminated or business hurt. I am sure that it will only be a matter of time before I see someone killed for it.
What I fear is that too many Americans will not get involved, choosing their own self interest rather than protecting the rights of their fellow citizens. What they fail to realize that when anothers freedoms and rights are violated, those same rights that they have are also violated at the same time. Slowly but surely, they will find themselves in a place where they too cannot claim their rights, because there are no longer protections in place to ensure them. Their freedoms have been taken from them without them even knowing.
The last line of the Declaration of Independence says, "And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor."
This is what it took to achieve freedom. It took men who were willing to sacrifice their lives, their fortunes, and sacred honor. This threshold to maintain a free country has not changed! These sacrifices are the cost of freedom.
If you are not willing to sacrifice these things, you have already decided to join those who want to destroy freedom!
Monday, January 5, 2009
Investment Strategies for the crappy Economy
Assumptions:
- I figure that the stock market will not grow much and will trade sideways for some time.
- Municiple/state bonds will not be as safe as advertised because governments have spent way too much and bad economy will result in less tax revenues from income, sales, and businesses.
- The governments current "print money" policy will eventually create inflation!
Choose a diverse portfolio of index mutual funds:
- Domestic - 30% (VFINX or SPY)
- International - 20% (EFA or EAFE)
- Fixed Income/Bonds, MMA - 30% I think more should be placed in International and decrease the amount in fixed income by 10-15%
- Other - 20% Gold (GLD or Tocqueville Gold Fund)
- TIPS - Treasurydirect.gov or PIMCO Harbo Real Return Inst. Fund or Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities - side note: I think the gov't CPI measure has been adjusted down during the 1990's and does not accurately reflect true inflation, thus making TIPS less of a protection against inflation.
- Oil and Energy - (XLE, Vanguard Energy Fund) less than 10% because of volatility. note: I think you can invest more here because the world needs more energy in the future and the price will be going up from today's prices. Could be a good hedge against inflation during another energy crisis.
Taken from "The End of Prosperity" best book ever!
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