Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Health Care Reform

I see a couple possibilities for Health Care in America:

1) We do nothing

2) We create a totally government run system

3) We create a partial government/private insurance system

4) We get government entirely out of healthcare, totally private

5) We get rid of insurance all together for healthcare

1) We do nothing:

I don't really see this as a best choice. Currently we are spending ~16-17% of GDP on healthcare in the US. In 1967, we insured about the same percentage of people (85%) in the US for about 5% of GDP.

2) Government Run System: aka One Payor System

Since when has the government ever SAVED you $$$$$?

Right now the pharmaceutical companies, the AMA, the insurance industry, the medical devices companies, and all other health-care related companies are pouring millions of dollars into lobbying Congress. None of them want to see the healthcare pie in America get smaller. The only group that is going to get screwed in a government run system are the American people. They simply don't have the money and lobbying effort to protect their interests.

3) Partial Governement/Private Healthcare system

This is basically what we have right now. We have Medicaid and Medicare from the governement and private insurance that is usually tied to employment. Since 1967, the government has been covering a larger portion of the population, although it is still smaller than the private sector portion. In this system, it is the insurance companies who "ration" care to those they cover and the government "rations" care for the people they cover.

This system clearly isn't working for us because it costs so much.

4 & 5) With a private system, I see two possibilities:

First though, we need a brief economics lessen. Fundamental to a free market system is that consumers of goods and services can ascertain the QUALITY and COST of the good or service they are purchasing.

When you went to the doctor last, did you see a menu listing the prices of all the procedures your doctor offers? Did you know how much your visit was going to cost beyond the co-pay? Yes, the visits really do cost more than $20. Did you know how good or bad the doctor or his/her staff had performed the service you needed compared to other doctors? No...? I didn't think so.

The medical profession has done a tremendous amount of work to make sure patients cannot assess the quality or cost of their health care. Doctors/AMA have made deals with insurance companies to give them a better rate in exchange for not sharing information about malpractice cases or procedure success rates.

Isn't it interesting that You are the customer, the one buying the health care and yet you are the one being kept in the dark about the real costs and quality of what you are buying! Sure, the insurance company "paid" their portion. But where did they get that money? Oh wait, that came from the premiums you have paid every month. So at the end of the day, it is all your money. It is also interesting that the insurance companies get to tell you, the customer, what services you can have and what doctors you can go to, regardless of need or geographic proximity? In every other business situation what the doctors and the insurance companies are doing would be called Collusion and would be illegal!

My approaches are aimed at creating a system where consumers/patients know costs of and can assess the quality of the care they are buying.

1) We create a system where all preventative, routine/common medical needs are covered by insurance. Things like strept throat, flu, immunizations for school children, physicals, etc would be covered. For major medical, people are on their own. You get cancer or need open heart surgery, the individual pays for every penny, no insurance allowed for major medical by law, even if you can afford it.

The benefits as I see it in this system would be that all people have "basic" coverage. This means that a brilliant child born into a poor family would be given the care needed to keep him/her healthy enough to fully develop their talents because they are not sick or dead. This could create a labor market competitive advantage for the U.S. in the long run and we will not have wasted as many resources educating kids who are too sick to work or die. Also in this system, the insurance companies set a price for how much they will pay for each service like they do today. This could create incentives for doctors to cut costs and the difference is higher profit for them. Obviously, this has a good side and bad side. Those doctors who provide worse care by cutting too much would be "found out" eventually if we had a system where a quality of care database was available to patients based on past experience. The database would be a lot like the databases insurance companies have today with all the malpractice payments, etc. for each doctor they insure.

The down side I see is that people would over use this basic care segment of the health care system because it costs them nothing. Don't have time to go to the doctor because Jonny or Suzie is sick? ... go to the ER! Get your 2 annual dental cleanings each year because you are ENTITLED to them whether you need them or not. This is the perverse way things work when it costs people nothing. Doctors would also leave the basic care area because there would be less money in it. The government or insurance companies would set a rate for services and that would be all the doctors would get. The only way insurance companies could make money in this system would be to 1) encourage high usage of health care to generate revenues - the volume approach or 2) compensate doctors less and less for procedures to create higher margins for themselves.

2) We create a system where people pay for their own preventative, routine/common medical needs (No insurance). This creates a system where patients are very aware of the costs of their health care. They immediately begin a few behaviors: They start shopping around for the cheapest rates for each service. They start negotiating with doctors over price. They start doing more homework to assess the quality of the doctor they are seeing for each service. Do they really need the Michael Jordan of medicine for their flu or child's immunizations? They don't use medical services they don't REALLY need.

These new behaviors have a few very positive benefits:

When people have to pay for it, they will only go to the doctor when they really need it. No more scheduling dental appointments for a cleaning just because the insurance allows it every six months. The "I'll be damned if I don't get every penny of the benefits I have "paid" for" attitude will go away. So will the over use of health care. This decreased demand will result in a lower costs for health care services in the short to mid-term. It will hurt in the immediate timeframe for those who absolutely need healthcare now and cannot wait. These people will pay the current high costs. The pain will be brief though!

When people start shopping around and negotiating the prices of services, this creates competition between doctors. Competition lowers prices as does negotiating and knowing the costs upfront. When was the last time you saw doctors compete on price with another doctor? Where are the price wars?

When people start doing more homework in choosing doctors, and I mean more than just, "who do you like" or "who's good". When they start looking at who has the fewest dropped babies, malpractice suits, or highest cancer survivor rates, then they will be able to choose the right doctor for their needs. This will reward the best doctors and punish the worst doctors. The best can charge a premium and the worst will be in court and out of work. This encourages doctors to act in the patients best interest and stay current in their field.

Side Note; I find it very interesting that I don't see or hear about unemployed doctors. Are all doctors really good at what they do? Are they really the best and brightest? I mean, even #1 draft picks fail sometimes!... but no doctors? This is because there is no competition or accountability for how good or bad they are. All it takes to be a doctor is to get through O Chem and the dedication/drive to get through school. I know some idiot doctors!
The people of the United States really need a system that will allow them to assess the quality of their doctors. By placing all the malpractice cases, survival rates, and recovery rates, etc in a national database available on the internet, people and doctors could see who is the best in their area for each service or specialty. No private/personal information on patients would be needed.
For major medical, individuals buy their own plans according to their needs and their means. It would be like buying life insurace where you can choose whole life or term-life, but the government wouldn't be involved in choosing or rationing.

Mandatory health insurance:

How is this working in Massachusetts? Oh wait, their system is bankrupt!

Of course, according to Joe Biden, "We need to spend more to avoid bankruptcy". Brilliant Joe

What if I refuse to pay or buy the health insurance? Can I just quit my job and go on welfare? Won't they just be giving me the same health care for free plus other benefits and I won't have to work anymore? Sounds like a great plan to me!

They have really thought this out, Idiots!

At what point does law become tyranny as well?

Some interesting articles:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/06/01/090601fa_fact_gawande?currentPage=all

The Health Care Bill
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.3200:

Spending other peoples money

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/08/05/impossible_promises_97774.html

Mark to Market

Mark to Market:

Eliminating this rule was done so banks would not have to write-down the value of their assests. Also known as the millions of homes they own because they gave loans to people who couldn't really afford the house and loans that were for more than the house is really worth. Writing down the value of these assets showed the world just how vulnerable these banks were and how risky the bets they had made really are.

What the SEC has done was just camoflage how bad the balance sheets of these banks really are. They have done exactly what they are supposed to stop. The reason we have accounting rules for publically owned companies is so shareholders can see the true value of the company in which they are investing. Eliminating mark to market has just made the banks look much stronger than they really are. They no longer have to show the losses they are taking or expect to take on the risky loans they have made. We have just introduced a huge shell game of confidence into the stock market on a level never seen before. All the SEC and Obama adminstration has done is told everyone the banks are wearing clothes.

My guess is that the Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley's of the financial world will buy the profitable parts of Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citi when the losses really start to mount. The tax payers will be left with all the toxic assets at the end of the day while these other banks will reap huge profits. Since they will be the only game in town, they will enjoy a nice monopoly and we will suffer for it as a result. Think the new fees and terms are bad now? Wait until there is no competition!

Too Big to Fail or Too Big to Save?

We have been told by the Federal Reserve Bank, the Treasury Department, and both the Bush and Obama administration that the banks and autos are too big to fail, they are too important to our economy to let them fail. We must bail out their risky behavior at any cost to ourselves. These bailouts were made very quickly with hundreds of Billions of dollars, yet no real debate or communication was engaged in with the people who would eventually pay for these bailouts. We little people were just told it was too complex for us to understand and that this was the ONLY way.

I come from a school of thought where there are always more than one way of looking at things. There is always more than one solution. So here is one of those other possibilities: Create a new, healthy bank with the bailout money.

Why is this a possibility?

1) A new healthy bank would be able to create loans under tougher lending standards, but not the draconian terms banks are not offering consumers. This new bank would keep the availability of credit available to sound businesses and individuals, something that was a major problem last Fall, the banks didn't even trust each other. This would have enabled more businesses to stay in business, lessening the job losses. Individuals could have gone to this new bank and refinanced their mortgages with the great lower rates now available. Of course, those who never had any business "buying" their home wouldn't be helped by this, but those who were close and make "smart" decisions could still make it work and keep their homes. This in turn would have lessened the housing market collapse because their would be less houses on the market because more people were able to refinance. This would have helped both the banks and the individuals. It would have enabled the banks to sell the homes at a higher price, helping their balance sheets. It would have helped the individuals who had their house repossessed by the bank because they would owe less money.

Because businesses still have a bank from which they can borrow, they will still be in business and will not have to lay-off their employees. This again creates a virtous cycle in the economy.

2) With the bailouts, the banks reaped all the rewards of their risky behavior while the taxpayers get stuck with the bill. Remember all those record setting profits in 2005 from the financial firms? How big were those bonuses that year? In fact, where is that money now? Oh yeah, it is with the very people who got us into this mess. The very ones who understood what was happening and the risks they were taking.

In setting up a new bank, the banks who took risks too big for their balance sheets would fail. The shareholders who pushed for higher and higher profits and returns would end up with nothing. The employees and executives who enabled this greed to create the risky loans would be in the unemployment lines. The businesses and banks who had healthy balance sheets and did not take unreasonable risks survive. It would be survival of the fittest.

What are those banks who got all of our bailout money doing to show their appreciation? They have raised interest rates on credit cards, they have raised ATM fees, checking account overdraft fees, introduced new fees - like talking to a teller in person, cut credit limits (which hurts your credit score) and added annual fees on credit cards. They are going to get the money to pay back the taxpayer from the taxpayer!

Saturday, February 28, 2009

The Price of Freedom

In order to achieve freedom or to maintain a free country, it requires people to be willing make certain sacrifices.



1) Life

2) Wealth

3) Their Sacred Honor



This is the threshold people must pass to have freedom.

Those who are unwilling to pay this price do not deserve freedom. If the citizens of our country are unwilling to bear these costs, we will lose the freedoms granted us in the Constitution.

How many of us complain about just getting off our butts to register or vote?
How many of us volunteer for a campaign or work at a polling station?
When is the last time you called or wrote a letter to an elected official?

Friday, February 27, 2009

I have the Courage to talk about Race

Attorney General Eric Holder says Americans don't have the courage to talk about Race.

Lets talk about Race in America, lets have that conversation!

When are we going to talk about the Race double standard? Why is it that only Whites can be racists?? In case you don't understand this, let me explain it.

This is a quote:
"There are African Americans, Mexican Americans, Asian Americans, Arab Americans, etc. And then there are just Americans.

You pass me on the street and sneer in my direction. You call me 'White boy,' 'Cracker,' 'Honkey,' 'Whitey,' 'Caveman'... and that's OK. But when I call you, Nigger, Kike, Towel head, Sand-nigger, Camel Jockey, Beaner, Gook, or Chink .. You call me a racist.

You say that Whites commit a lot of violence against you... so why are the ghettos the most dangerous places to live?

You have the United Negro College Fund. You have Martin Luther King Day. You have Black History Month. You have Cesar Chavez Day. You have Yom Hashoah. You have Ma'uled Al-Nabi.

You have the NAACP. You have BET... If we had WET (White Entertainment Television), we'd be racists.

If we had a White Pride Day, you would call us racists.

If we had White History Month, we'd be racists.

If we had any organization for only whites to 'advance' OUR, lives we'd be racists.

We have a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, a Black Chamber of Commerce, and then we just have the plain Chamber of Commerce. Wonder who pays for that??

A white woman could not be in the Miss Black American pageant but any color can be in the Miss America pageant. If we had a college fund that onl y gave white students scholarships ...You know we'd be racists. There are over 60 openly proclaimed Black Colleges in the US . Yet if there were 'White colleges' That would be a racist college.

In the Million Man March, you believed that you were marching for your race and rights. If we marched for our race and rights, you would call us racists. You are proud to be black, brown, yellow and orange, and you're not afraid to announce it. But when we announce our White pride, you call us racists. You rob us, carjack us, and shoot at us. But, when a White police officer shoots a black gang member or beats up a black drug dealer running from the law and posing a threat to society, you call him a racist." End Quote

I didn't write the previous paragraphs but I think the author makes some good points. Here are some of the things I have noticed:

How come we can have stores with signs that say "Black Owned" but not signs that say "White Owned"? What are those signs implying to customers and would be job applicants? Is it really okay to discriminate against whites but not blacks? If this is the case, then how are we ever going to have racial harmony in America?

McCain vs. Obama

Obama goes to a church for 20 years led by a preacher who openly hates whites and America. Hardly anything is said and Barack is given the benefit of the doubt that he is not a racist too like Jeremiah Wright.

If McCain had gone to church even one Sunday where the preacher wore a white hood, what would have happened? Would anyone (media, Democrats, and most Republicans) given McCain the same benefit of the doubt that he is not a racist? Hell No they wouldn't have! The Campaign would have been over for a white guy in a similar situation.

Obama's Policies

How come if I or any other white person says anything negative about Obama's policies or the bailout; we are labeled as a racist. Our criticisms are assumed to be motivated by race, not a real problem with the ideas presented. Why is this? The Race double standard in America.

My Racist Experiences:

Now I have been beat up by some Black people because of my race. How do I know this? As they were chasing me, assulting me, hiting me with cars and shooting at me, they were saying all sorts of racist things. Like "F*%$ you cracker", "F*%$ Jew, Christ killer", "white devil", etc. This happened in Newark and Orange, NJ. FYI, I am not even Jewish. I guess I got to understand things from their perspective too for a few minutes.

Do I hate Black people because of this? NO. This was just some stupid, pissed off, angry at the world individuals. They don't represent Black people anymore than White Supremisists represent White people.

I have been asked during interview prescreens what my diversity status is, with the clear communication that the company only wanted "diverse candidates". What is that question all about? How is that not racial discrimination against "non-diverse candidates"? While I can understand some people thinking that reverse discrimination is just payback, isn't that what affirmative action is all about?

Taking an eye for an eye just makes the whole world blind. In this case it just makes everyone bitter. You can bet your ass I will be telling my kids about this experience and the future they can look forward too in America.

At the end of the day, most people are just doing the best they can with the cards they have been dealt regardless of Race. There are a few assholes of every Race making life hell for everyone around them.

I am an American, that is how I identify myself. I am an American and I have the courage to talk about Race. Yeah, I know what you are thinking, "he's white or at least looks white and talking about race,... he must be a racist!"

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

A real life Chicken Little is going to kill is all!

Global Warming caused by humans is total BS!

A little critical thinking has brought me to this conclusion.

We are often quoted the same temperature change studies. The ones that use ice core samples from Greenland or Antarctica for a history of temperatures. From a statistical point of view, these samples do not represent the entire "population" of historical temperatures. Researchers have effectively committed sampling error when doing their analysis by using some set number of years 30, 50, 200 that are all part of the industrial age. We know the earth has climate cycles, some are only a couple years and some are hundreds of thousands if not millions of years long.

Two reasons why their methodology is flawed:

1) The ice core samples only go back as far as the begining of the last Ice Age. That means that the starting temperatures were already cold as hell. Everyday since the end of the last Ice Age has been warmer. Thus, the trend of warmer temperatures was already well underway before man started placing vast amounts of carbon dioxide into the environment.

We know from geological evidence that there have been multiple Ice Ages and warming periods in between those events. Some of those warming periods have been so warm that Antarctica has forests on it. Not just forests, but tropical forests. Think for a moment how warm things must have been aroung the equator if Antarctica felt like the Amazon! No really, think about that...

2) The other flaw is that we know that the continents have shifted due to plate techtonics over millions of years. Greenland has not always been as far North or South as it is now. The ice core studies have made no attempt to account for this movement and how that could impact the ice core records for average temperature.

It is clear from historical record that the earth's temperature varies in natural cycles. Examples include the Little Ice Age during medival times or the Year Without Summer after the volcano erruption of Tambora. It snowed in June on the East coast of the U.S. that next "summer". Some of these events are relatively short, lasting only 20-30 years. Some last hundreds or even millions of years (Ice Ages).

Some will argue about THE RATE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE. The fact is, no one really knows what the historical rate of past warming periods has been. The Ice Core samples don't go back that far. They ALL melted during the last warming period!

For people who don't believe in God, global warming advocates sure seem to believe that their is a God given mandate that the earth's temperature "should" stay within a range that supports human life. Who ever said that the last 10,000 years of temperatures is normal or the status quo?

What if human beings have thrived during an unusually warm or cold period? What if the average temperature for the earth is really below freezing? Or 120 degrees plus?

All of this crazy talk about global warming would be laughable if it were just talk. Unfortunately, people with agendas have seen an opportunity to make some money and destroy the freedom of our people through environmental law.

By continuing with this crazy delusion that human activity is causing the world to over heat, we are on the path to a world wide Easter Island. We will exert so much energy protecting the environment that we will all die of starvation. This is exactly what some people who promote Global Warming heresy want. UN offical Quote here:

"When one considers that even if all the nations complied with the Kyoto Accord's CO2 emission mandates, the impact on global temperature change over the ext fifty years would be less than one degree centigrade." (Dr. Patrick Michaels, Press Release on Lieberman-Warner, The Cato Institute.)

The Financial Education of America (part 2 Understanding Financial Risk)

Only people in the United States could be so narcissistic to think that they could spend more money than they have. Why do we spend so much money to guarantee that old people do not die? Isn't death a part of life? We spend more money to maintain the lifestyles of people who can no longer contribute to our countries welfare and economy, than we do for the productive workers and future generation. Like a large multinational corporation, we have become top heavy. We have too many old, retired people. FYI, they don't call it retirement when you can't afford to live, they call it unemployed!



Too many people believe it is their God given right to retire at 65 not matter how much or how little they have saved to do so. Why is it that the children of working parents get less health care than the children of welfare parents? We have a system that rewards those who don't EARN enough to provide for themselves but punishes those who are doing all they can, but have EARNED too much to get our help. Our welfare system is designed to fail! We have created a system where people are better off not working. This is only sustainable by taking a larger and larger portion of the EARNINGS of people who work hard enough to support themselves. As this continues, people get a lower and lower return for their efforts. At some point, they say "F It" and join the welfare throng. Soon everyone is looking at each other wondering who is going to breathe for them because they are too helpless (lazy) to do it themselves. Why can liberals not see this? Sure giving to the less fortunate – either by choice or circumstance is nice and a good thing. It makes you feel good, it really does! When it comes at the cost of biting the hand that feeds you though, you have gone too far. When charitable giving no longer involves charity but has been replaced by coercion through taxes, we have gone too far. When are people, esp. liberals going to realize that life is not FAIR?



Nature is a cold-hearted bitch and this world is very unforgiving to stupid people. There is no guarantee of freedom, peace, enough food to eat, home ownership, an education, or even life itself. Each must be fought for and EARNED each day.



When are people going to realize that trying to get that extra percentage return on investments also increases the risk? Don't people realize that outsized gains come with outsized risk? Oh, and for the record, Risk is not defined as not making any money or just keeping pace with inflation. Risk equals you might lose all your money invested, more money, and your reputation. At some point in the return vs. risk continuum, fraud begins, some point higher than that the law is broken. Why do you think drug dealers sell drugs? Why do business men create Ponzi schemes? The rate of return is incredible!



If it sounds too good to be true... IT IS. If someone tells you the investment is "guaranteed"...Don't Believe It!

Reality Sets In

Reality has set in! Just look at what the stock market did today. Down 300 points.

Since the November election of Barack Obama, the nation and the stock market have been like a person anticipating the vacation of a lifetime. We have been looking forward to inauguration day with so much excitement, hope, and irrational exuberance that we have been able to avoid any thoughts about the economic reality we presently find ourselves. We have been able to get through the long work weeks and dreadful state of the economy by focusing on the happiness and joy January 20, 2009 will bring. Planning for a party always seems so much more fun than planning for your own funeral!

Well, today is like the first day back from vacation and all that remains is the drudgery of returning to work and paying the bills. Our overspending has caught up with us and there is no denying it now. Our creditors are tired of us telling them the check is in the mail and have wised up to our irresponsible ways. We have to face the facts and the hard work required to get us out of the mess our frivolous spending and quest for outsized gains has placed us in.

There is no longer any reason to irrationally think that Barack "Jesus" Obama will magically make all the bad things go away the second he finishes taking the oath to become President of the United States. See link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI


I have always been proud of my country! Today's inauguration just adds one more thing that makes me proud to be an American. I pray for Obama's success at changing our country for the better. It is the greatest country in the history of the world. Not perfect, but the greatest.

The Financial Education of America (part 1)

Where has personal responsibility gone? How is it my fault you’re a sucker or an idiot for buying a house you couldn't afford? You say, "I trusted the realtor or the bank's loan officer, it's their fault." Since when do you ever trust another person with your money? When do you trust a salesperson to "give you the truth"? This is a classic example of why common sense is dead!

Do we need to require that a financial IQ test be given AND passed before you can qualify for a mortgage loan? I have created one that will solve our problems:

SAMPLE TEST

Q1 – Have you defined your shelter needs?

Q2 – Wrong answer dumba$$. A separate bedroom for each kid, a swimming pool, and 3 acres are not necessities for basic shelter. Redefine your needs and we will see if you can afford those WANTS later. Remember, humans have survived for thousands of years in a one room dwelling that was the kitchen, living room, office and bedroom. Yes, the kids did understand how babies were made and yet somehow they survived.

Q3 – How much can you afford?

If you don't know this, you have no business even thinking about a home purchase!

Take your gross income and multiply by .28. That was point two eight, not 28. Example $60,000 x .28 = $16,800. Divide $16,800 ÷ 12 (months) = $1,400. This is the amount you can afford to pay for the mortgage, utilities, repairs, home owners insurance, and all other costs surrounding your housing each month. This amount varies depending on how much other debt you have à Monthly credit card payments, student loan payments, and car loan payments, big screen TV payments, and other worthless shit you may have bought with credit. If you have less debt, you can increase this to as much as .35. Anything higher than this amount makes you house poor.

House Poor: You are paying so much for your house that you cannot afford to furnish it or buy anything else.

Here is how a typical person spends their income:
Taxes 25.00%
Mortgage, student loans, credit card, car loan 45.00%
Retirement 10.00%
Savings, Emergency fund, vacation fund, kids college fund 5.00%
Living Expenses 15.00%
Total 100.00%


Q4 – Can you calculate the monthly payment on a $300,000.00, 30 year fixed rate loan at 6%?

Yeah, I didn't think so. Go figure it out and come back when you can.

Now that you know how to calculate the monthly payment, you know how much you can afford, and what you housing needs are, you are ready to start shopping for a house. Did you read that? Now you are ready to shop. You don't find a house first and then see if you can afford it. That is the fastest way to pay the more money than you should.

FYI: Realtors, both the buyers and the sellers; want to sell you the most expensive house at the highest price possible. They work on commission, so getting you into a less expensive house hurts their income. They typically make 3% of the sale price each for a total of 6%. Buyer typically pays.

Rules:
1) If you don't earn enough to pay federal income taxes, you do not make enough to buy your own home. Yes, life is not fair and it is about Freaking time you realize it. Stop whining.
2) You cannot trust other people with your money. No one cares about your money more than you; except the guy or gal trying to take it from you. You cannot trust your realtor, loan officer, car salesman, investment advisor, student loan counselor, or anyone else if you do not understand what they are doing. You need to understand how they make money. If you are ignorant, you WILL lose money!!! If you are unsure, keep your money until you become informed. Asking friends you trust, other professionals in the area you are ignorant about, go to school, and using the internet are good ways to learn what is going on.
3) Over the course of 30 years, you will lose your job. Plan for it, save for it!

Sunday, January 11, 2009

More of what Obama should do - Encourage Saving

If Obama wants to get the economy going again, he should do the following things.

He should cut the federal income tax, eliminate the capital gains tax, and increase sales tax. I realize that increasing sales taxes could reduce spending, which decreases demand, which decreases employment. There is no getting around it, we have to take our medicine sometime, lets get it over with. After these, he should encourage the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates slowly over time to reward savers.

One of the major problems in our current economic and financial crisis is that banks are trying to deleverage themselves. Basically, they have spent (lent) too much money and the bills are coming due, so they cannot loan more money right now until they build up their reserves (emergency fund).

1) By lowering the income tax, we give people more of the money they EARNED!
2) By raising the sales tax rates, we encourage people to save that extra money.
3) As people save this money, they place it into bank accounts. This speeds the deleveraging process for the banks and gets them closer to giving loans to people/businesses again.
4) By eliminating the capital gains tax, we encourage people to invest and save their money. In this way we provide more fiancial capital for businesses. In addition, we don't tax people twice on money they have already been taxed on.
5) By slowly raising Fed interest rates, we increase the rate of return savers get for saving. This creates more money to spend eventually, provides more incentive to save more, and helps banks deleverage even faster.


The federal government could help a lot by cutting its spending as well on programs we don't really need and assessing ones we really do.

The Cost of Freedom

Americans have become too comfortable with the freedoms and right they enjoy. Too many seem to think that merely being born on the earth or even this country is a guarantee that they will be free. This isn't about Americans not voting in elections. This is about Americans not being active citizens. The "somebody else will do it" mentality has created an environment where corruption and politics as usual rule the day. Too many good people don't do the right thing because the costs are too high for them or they have too much to lose. They see corruption and do nothing about it; some even carry it out for employers and bosses.

The end effect is that we have a society where good people are punished and hurt, while the criminals prosper and rule.

Many people probably feel like, "what can I do, I am just one person?". What they fail to realize is that while most of us can't stop the corrupt Congressman, Senator, or Govenor; we can stop things at the local level by getting involved. Our country and political system was designed to be governed at the local level. It was predicated on the assumption that a vigilant and involved citizenry would ensure justice would be done and evils discovered. It would keep bad men from rising to the state or national level because their corruption would have been discovered earlier.

Citizenship goes beyond just the rights afforded in the Constitution and Bill of Rights. It also carries with it the duty to see that the rights of others are not violated or abused.

It is at this juncture that so many of us fall short. We see corruption and we do nothing about it. I suspect that this is mainly due to three reasons: fear of reprisal by those in power, the person whose rights are being violated does not share our views, or they are too poor to really matter.

I have seen in my own life where those who get involved to thwart the designs of evil men are derided in the media, their employment is terminated or business hurt. I am sure that it will only be a matter of time before I see someone killed for it.

What I fear is that too many Americans will not get involved, choosing their own self interest rather than protecting the rights of their fellow citizens. What they fail to realize that when anothers freedoms and rights are violated, those same rights that they have are also violated at the same time. Slowly but surely, they will find themselves in a place where they too cannot claim their rights, because there are no longer protections in place to ensure them. Their freedoms have been taken from them without them even knowing.

The last line of the Declaration of Independence says, "And for the support of this declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor."

This is what it took to achieve freedom. It took men who were willing to sacrifice their lives, their fortunes, and sacred honor. This threshold to maintain a free country has not changed! These sacrifices are the cost of freedom.

If you are not willing to sacrifice these things, you have already decided to join those who want to destroy freedom!

Monday, January 5, 2009

Investment Strategies for the crappy Economy

Assumptions:

  1. I figure that the stock market will not grow much and will trade sideways for some time.
  2. Municiple/state bonds will not be as safe as advertised because governments have spent way too much and bad economy will result in less tax revenues from income, sales, and businesses.
  3. The governments current "print money" policy will eventually create inflation!

Choose a diverse portfolio of index mutual funds:

  • Domestic - 30% (VFINX or SPY)
  • International - 20% (EFA or EAFE)
  • Fixed Income/Bonds, MMA - 30% I think more should be placed in International and decrease the amount in fixed income by 10-15%
  • Other - 20% Gold (GLD or Tocqueville Gold Fund)
  • TIPS - Treasurydirect.gov or PIMCO Harbo Real Return Inst. Fund or Vanguard Inflation Protected Securities - side note: I think the gov't CPI measure has been adjusted down during the 1990's and does not accurately reflect true inflation, thus making TIPS less of a protection against inflation.
  • Oil and Energy - (XLE, Vanguard Energy Fund) less than 10% because of volatility. note: I think you can invest more here because the world needs more energy in the future and the price will be going up from today's prices. Could be a good hedge against inflation during another energy crisis.

Taken from "The End of Prosperity" best book ever!